Real Estate Market Outlook 2023 Spain

Key economic indicators and their impact on the sector

The Spanish economy has shown clear signs of easing so far in 2023. A combination of heightened inflationary pressures and monetary policy tightening will curb activity slightly, however, economic momentum should start to pick up once again as we move through the second half of the year. Despite this, forecasts suggest that GDP growth will reach 1.2% this year, outperforming the Eurozone average.

Key Trends Shaping Real Estate

Quality, ESG credentials and flexibility in terms of uses will separate the best assets from the “rest”, giving rise to an ever more apparent polarisation across most sectors.

• Forecasts suggest 2023 will see a downward adjustment of around 20-30% in investment volumes, particularly during the first half of the year, with growth expected to resume during the second half.

• Monetary policy tightening put a strain on the market in 2022, with sovereign bonds experiencing significant upticks and prime yields also seeing direct increases. Forecasts suggest that the majority of asset classes have already experienced more than 70% of the maximum adjustment expected, with yields still expected to continue to climb over the course of 2023, but at a more moderate rate.

   

• Market polarisation is set to become more pronounced throughout 2023. There will be increasingly greater disparity between assets that do not hold a lot of appeal – whether it be due to their location, design or the level of technology they offer – and properties built with a clear purpose in mind, designed to offer a functional asset or create a connection with people.

• The difficult macroeconomic backdrop will squeeze office take-up forecasts which, while remaining positive for this market, will see increases limited to 5-10% compared to the previous year.

• While logistics demand hit an all-time record in 2022, this year we expect take-up to dip by 20% in Catalonia and 30% in the Central Area due to the mismatch between quality supply and robust demand.

• Sales and footfall figures recovered across almost all retail segments in 2022, coming close to reaching pre-pandemic levels. Spain is expected to see retail sales continue to trend upwards in 2023, rising by 4.5% and outpacing the average growth rate for the Eurozone.

• The investment outlook for the living sector paints a promising picture for 2023, with the less traditional segments (student housing, flex living and senior living) set to continue to thrive – in light of the quality of life and flexibility that they offer – accounting for an increasingly larger investment share compared to rental housing, particularly BTR projects which are currently the main investment target in this segment.

• The tourism industry staged a notable recovery in 2022, but rising transport and mobility costs could jeopardise the performance of the hotel sector in H2 2023. Indicators for visitor numbers, ADR and RevPAR performance should start to ease as of May.

• According to forecasts, more than 30.4% of Spain's population will be over the age of 65 by 2050. This surge in demand will continue to herald an excellent outlook for the healthcare sector, a market that remains highly fragmented and that will tend towards the further institutionalisation of its players.
  
  

Less traditional sectors such as student housing, co-living, senior living and healthcare accounted for 20% of the total real estate investment volume in 2022, with their market share expected to continue to rise in 2023.

• Following a record year in 2022, investment demand for data centres will remain at historically high levels in 2023. For the first time ever, all cloud solution providers (hyperscale) have officially debuted in the Iberian market.

• Going forwards, the ability to identify blue oceans will be key, with the opportunity lying in diversification. Emerging sectors, such as Education, Life Science, Agribusiness, Sports and Infrastructure, will play a key role in 2023.

• Setting net zero emissions targets for properties and their operations will soon become the norm. Investors will continue to incorporate ESG considerations across all stages of the property life cycle.