Realizing Potential in Logistics 2025

On September 23, 2025, CBRE brought together the main players in the Industrial & Logistics sector for an exclusive event, dedicated to the latest trends and challenges in the industry.

The event explored:

An Overview of the Real Estate Market of Industrial & Logistics Assets

The European market has gained more momentum in peripheral areas than in central logistics areas. However, this trend is not consistent across all regions. Most territories experienced growth in their logistics stock, accompanied by growth in vacant areas and increases in prime rents.

Portugal showed a pattern of stock expansion and a reduction of vacant areas, alongside significant increases in prime rents. Following the development cycle observed during the pandemic period, industrial and logistics investment is currently gaining traction, as many portfolios are occupied by attractive tenants, making them ideal candidates for exit strategies.

An overview of what is happening with e-commerce in Portugal

Unlike what happened with the expansion of e-commerce throughout the OECD, in Portugal there was no contraction in the retail area. Here, physical retail has absorbed part of the area needed for e-commerce operations, as it is often used to carry out last mile operations.

This internalization of last miles from the point of sale has implications for logistics demand. Logistics take-up has almost doubled compared to the pre-pandemic period, however:

1. The same proportion of demand types was maintained, namely: about ~35% represents logistics for retail operators and ~60% for logistics operators.
2. Of this 60%, the demand for delivery and express operators is very equal to the demand for the other logistics operators.
3. The logistics footprint of delivery and express operators in Portugal has increased significantly, meaning they can now respond to increased demand without necessarily having to expand.

Looking to the future, we expect e-commerce growth in Portugal to be moderate (another boom like that seen during the pandemic is not expected) and demand to come mainly from retailers looking for spaces of their interest. We also expect a less intense delivery and express operators dynamic.

Obsolescence in a low vacancy world

Despite the global uncertainty, most logistics operators in Europe are planning to expand their space. Additionally, European operators state that obsolescence poses a logistical challenge. In this context, our international research observes that a two-tier market is emerging: prime product command prime rents, while obsolete products attract discounted rents.

In Portugal, there are also expectations of expansion of logistics space; however, when selecting a new asset, operators’ main concerns are essentially related to location rather than the characteristics of the asset. Although most of the existing stock is dated and potentially obsolete according to several concrete metrics, this market has not yet been divided into two categories:

1. Rents rise indiscriminately for prime and non-prime assets.
2. The location is the main factor in determining the value that investors can capture.

This is because, contrary to the growing vacancy rate across Europe, vacancy in Portugal continues to decrease as a result of lower stock additions compared to new absorptions. This blurs the threat of tenants fleeing.

We expect the situation to continue as it is in the short term:

1. Low availability;
2. Stock will remain occupied, albeit obsolete, given the few stock additions we expect.

Para o futuro, em Portugal, perspetivamos que os aumentos de e-commerce sejam moderados (não sendo de antever outro boom como aconteceu durante a pandemia) e que a procura se manifeste principalmente da parte de retalhistas, por espaços do seu interesse. Espectamos uma dinâmica menos intensa de operadores de entregas e expresso.

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